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Investment Management

Third Quarter 2024 Insight

August 16, 2024

John Allen

John Allen
Marc Castellani

Marc Castellani
Stephen Kawasaki

Stephen Kawasaki

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Aspiriant Third Quarter 2024 Insight

Investment Strategy & Research (IS&R)

Explore our Investment Strategy & Research (IS&R) team’s analysis of the economic landscape for the third quarter of 2024. In this summary, we highlight key trends, including inflation shifts, market reactions and portfolio considerations. For a more in-depth dive, access our full Insight report here.

Highlights

  • Inflationary pressures continue to subside, and the Federal Reserve seems to be shifting its focus to the strong, though potentially softening, labor market.
  • The Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) shed over $2 trillion in market capitalization in a brief period, as reporting guidance disappointed and the stocks struggled to overcome macroeconomic headwinds.
  • Political and fiscal policy uncertainty remains an overhang on the market.
  • Restrictive monetary policy gives the Fed the flexibility to intervene as necessary.

Macro Environment at a Glance

Inflation Trends and Economic Outlook:

As illustrated in Figure 1, inflation has significantly decreased from its peak of over 9% in June 2022, now standing around 3.0%. This decline aligns with historical patterns, where inflation cycles typically take 24 months to peak and then recede. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue easing monetary policy, especially if disinflationary pressures persist and the labor market cools further.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Household Wealth and Economic Disparities:

Figure 2 shows that U.S. household net worth, as a percentage of GDP, has surged to nearly 6x, a level not seen since the 1950s. This increase reflects the robust economic growth driven by factors such as lower labor and debt costs, fewer regulations, and technological advances. However, the benefits of this growth have not been evenly distributed. Lower-income households continue to face significant challenges, particularly with inflation eroding their purchasing power and increasing their reliance on credit. As such, we believe it is important to monitor rising credit card delinquencies, as well as other forms of credit, to determine the sustainability of consumer spending patterns.

Household Net Worth to GDP

Portfolio Considerations

  • Investors should aim to maintain a disciplined approach to portfolio construction—diversified, fully invested portfolios—while staying adaptive to the evolving landscape of risks and opportunities.
  • We recommend portfolio positioning grounded in diversification and purposeful risk-taking. Fixed income looks attractive, with yields offering a reasonable spread to inflation. Given that we are closer to the end of the inflation cycle than the start, we expect fixed income and equities markets to be less correlated to one another. This should give fixed income, as we have seen during recent market volatility, the ability to preserve capital during equity market sell-offs.

We believe holding defensive equities, especially this late in the cycle, is sensible due to their durable business models and strong cash flows. International equities offer potential for wider returns despite near-term risks. Additionally, exposure to private markets, such as private credit and infrastructure, allows investors to capitalize on market dislocations and long-term trends, while broadening portfolio diversification.

 

Download Insight highlights

 

Download full Insight analysis
John Allen
John Allen

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

John joined Aspiriant in 2014 as Chief Investment Officer. As CIO, John is primarily responsible for leading the firm’s overall Investment Strategy & Research Group, broadly consisting of 12 professionals. The group is responsible for asset allocation, portfolio construction, manager selection and risk management. John also chairs the firm’s Investment Committee and serves on a number of other committees. He has over 20 years of experience in investment management, investment banking, corporate finance advisory and business strategy consulting.

Prior to joining the firm, John was a senior member of the client service team at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo (GMO), which manages approximately $80 billion across a wide-range of public equities, fixed income, hedge funds and asset allocation funds. In that role, John had primary responsibility for 80 clients and $6.5 billion in assets under management.

Prior to joining GMO, John was the Head of Investments at a large family office in Los Angeles. There, John had responsibility for managing the firm’s overall investment portfolio as well as its direct investments. Previously, John established his career working in the investment banking department at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and in the business consulting practice at Stern Stewart & Co. Throughout his career, John has served on the boards of directors of three private companies.

John earned a Bachelor of Science degree with high distinction from the Economics Department at the University of Virginia. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA®) designation and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation. He is also a member of the CFA Institute and CAIA Association.

John lives in Los Angeles with his family.

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Marc Castellani
Marc Castellani

Managing Director in Private Investments, Chair of the Board of Directors, Partner

Marc joined Aspiriant in February of 2015. He has over 25 years of experience in the financial services industry. Marc oversees the firm’s private investment offering (private equity, venture capital, hedge funds and private real estate), and actively works with his colleagues on asset allocation, investment strategy and manager selection. Marc is a member of Aspiriant’s Investment and Client Service Committees.

Prior to joining the firm, Marc worked at the J.P. Morgan Private Bank in Los Angeles in a senior client management role and worked with families and high net worth individuals on portfolio management, tax planning, liability management and wealth transfer strategies. Before moving to Los Angeles in 2009, Marc worked for several years in New York City in the Mergers and Acquisitions departments of J.P. Morgan and Banc of America Securities. In that capacity, Marc advised large multinational clients and privately held, family-owned businesses on a range of strategic alternatives including sales, mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, spin-offs and growth equity financings.

Marc earned his undergraduate degree at Cornell University and his graduate degree in finance at the University of Rochester.

Marc lives in Manhattan Beach with his wife and children.

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Stephen Kawasaki
Stephen Kawasaki

Senior Manager in Investment Strategy & Research, Partner

Stephen brings nearly a decade of investment management experience to his role as a Senior Manager in Investment Strategy & Research. Stephen works with his colleagues from our
Orange County office on asset allocation, investment strategy and manager selection decisions.

Prior to joining Aspiriant in 2016, Stephen was a member of the Investment Committee at Balasa Dinverno Foltz LLC, which manages assets primarily for individuals, families and institutional clients. In addition to investment strategy responsibilities, he provided investment and wealth advisory services to high net worth individuals and families.

Stephen earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Financial Planning with high honors from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA®), Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA), and the Certified Financial PlannerTMTM (CFP®) designations. He is also a member of the CFA Institute and CAIA Association.

Stephen lives in Orange County with his family.

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Important disclosures

Aspirant is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which does not suggest a certain level of skill and training. Additional information regarding Aspiriant and its advisory practices can be obtained via the following link: https://aspiriant.com.

Information contained herein is considered confidential, private and Aspiriant proprietary inside information that is intended only for the audience to which Aspiriant has knowingly distributed this presentation to, either by way of request or voluntarily. Any redistribution of this material without our prior express written permission is a violation of Aspirant’s privacy policy adopted to comport with various state and federal privacy laws that may subject any unauthorized distributor to legal action.

All opinions, figures, charts/graphs, estimates and data included in this document are as on date and are subject to change without notice. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations, for general market performance or economic conditions, and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions, current beliefs and expectations. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, estimates, risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to: economic, business, market and geopolitical conditions; U.S. and foreign regulatory developments relating to, among other things, financial institutions and markets, government oversight, fiscal and tax policy. Any forward-looking information should not be regarded as a representation by Aspiriant or any other person that estimates or expectations contemplated will be achieved, as the future is not predictable.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurances that any strategy will meet its investment objectives. All investments can lose value. The performance and volatility of an investor’s portfolio will not be the same as the index. Indices are unmanaged and have no fees. An investment may not be made directly in an index. The data used in this material was obtained from third-party sources the firm believes are reliable and internally. Aspiriant is not responsible for the accuracy of any third-party data used in the construction of this presentation. This information alone is not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. Investing in securities, such as equity, fixed income and mutual funds, involves the risk of partial or complete loss of capital that prospective investors should be prepared to bear. Any reference to securities, directly or indirectly, is not a recommendation and does not represent a solicitation to buy or an offer of a solicitation to sell such securities. Any statistical information contained herein has been obtained from publicly available market data (such as, but not limited to, data published by Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates), internal research and regulatory filings.

Glossary of Terms Used in this Issue

Consumer Price Index (CPI): A key indicator of inflation or deflation in the economy.

Disinflation: A reduction in the rate of inflation, meaning prices are still increasing but at a slower rate than before.

Electoral College: The body of electors established by the United States Constitution that formally elects the President and Vice President of the United States.

Federal Reserve (Fed): The central banking system of the United States, responsible for setting monetary policy, including interest rates and regulating banks.

Gross domestic product (GDP): It measures the monetary value of final goods and services produced in a country in a given period of time.

Interest Rates: The percentage charged on borrowed money or paid on investments. Set by the Federal Reserve, interest rates influence inflation and economic growth.

Leading Economic Indicators: Key economic metrics that typically change before the broader economy shifts, providing insights into potential future economic activity.

Magnificent Seven: Stocks that include Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

Market Capitalization: The total market value of a company’s outstanding shares of stock, calculated by multiplying the current share price by the total number of outstanding shares.

Monetary Policy: The process by which the Federal Reserve manages the supply of money and interest rates to achieve macroeconomic objectives, such as controlling inflation, managing employment levels and ensuring economic stability.

Services Inflation: The rate at which prices for services—such as healthcare, education, and housing—rise over time.

Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment.

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